Computed from published fixed rules, not a model's judgement — though one input, the count of high-severity risks, comes from the AI analysis below.
Not investment advice and not a price target: it scores the quarter's fundamentals, not the stock. Full methodology →
AI Takeaway
Progressive Corporation delivered a strong FY2025, with revenue rising 16.3% to $87.7B and net income surging 33.3% to $11.3B, reflecting robust underwriting profitability and disciplined growth across its insurance segments.
Revenue
$87.67B
+16.32% YoY
EPS (Diluted)
$19.23
+33.54% YoY
Source: SEC XBRL
Progressive (PGR) reported FY2025 revenue of $87.67B, up 16.3% year over year. Operating cash flow was $17.55B, up 16.1% year over year.
Last 4 quarters: 2 beats
| Quarter | Actual EPS (USD) | Consensus (USD) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 4.85 | 4.87 | Miss -0.5% |
| Mar 2026 | 4.96 | 4.91 | Beat +1.0% |
| Dec 2025This filing | 4.67 | 4.46 | Beat +4.8% |
| Sep 2025 | 4.05 | 5.09 | Miss -20.4% |
Reported EPS of $4.67 versus the $4.46 analyst consensus — a +4.8% beat for Dec 2025.
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing
Total revenue grew 16.3% year-over-year from $75.4B to $87.7B in FY2025, indicating strong net written premium growth across personal and commercial lines as Progressive continued to gain market share in the auto insurance sector.
Source: 10-K Financial Data (Income Statement)
Net income increased 33.3% to $11.3B in FY2025 from $8.5B in the prior year, with net margin expanding to approximately 12.9%, suggesting improved underwriting results and favorable loss trends relative to earned premiums.
Source: 10-K Financial Data (Income Statement, Key Ratios)
Operating cash flow reached $17.5B in FY2025, up 16.1% from $15.1B, demonstrating Progressive's ability to convert premium revenue into cash efficiently and fund its investment portfolio and growth initiatives.
Source: 10-K Financial Data (Cash Flow Statement)
Stockholders' equity grew 18.5% to $30.3B, while total assets increased 16.4% to $123.0B, reflecting retained earnings accumulation and a strengthening balance sheet that supports future premium growth capacity.
Source: 10-K Financial Data (Balance Sheet)
Investing cash outflows increased to -$14.5B in FY2025 from -$13.7B, consistent with Progressive's strategy of deploying operating cash flows into its fixed-income and equity investment portfolio to generate investment income.
Source: 10-K Financial Data (Cash Flow Statement)
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing · 2 high, 3 medium, 0 low
As a leading personal auto and property insurer, Progressive is materially exposed to catastrophic weather events such as hurricanes, hailstorms, and wildfires. Elevated catastrophe losses in any given period can significantly compress underwriting margins and reduce net income. The increasing frequency and severity of weather-related events due to climate change heightens this risk.
Source: 10-K Risk Factors (inferred from business model and financial data)
Progressive must estimate loss reserves for claims that have occurred but not yet been fully settled. Persistent social inflation, rising medical costs, and higher vehicle repair costs could cause actual losses to exceed reserves, adversely impacting profitability. Underestimation of reserves would require reserve strengthening charges that reduce reported earnings.
Source: 10-K Risk Factors (inferred from insurance industry dynamics)
The personal auto insurance market is highly competitive, with large incumbents and new InsurTech entrants competing aggressively on price. If Progressive raises rates to maintain profitability, it risks losing policy count to competitors; if it holds rates too low, underwriting margins deteriorate. Balancing growth and profitability remains a persistent strategic challenge.
Source: 10-K Risk Factors (inferred from market position and revenue data)
Progressive's debt-to-equity ratio stands at approximately 3.06x, reflecting the leverage inherent in an insurance business model where policyholder liabilities constitute the majority of the balance sheet. While typical for insurers, this leverage amplifies the impact of adverse loss development or investment losses on stockholders' equity.
Source: 10-K Financial Data (Key Ratios, Balance Sheet)
Insurance premium rates are subject to state regulatory approval, and regulators may delay or deny rate increases even when loss trends warrant them. This can create periods where earned premiums are insufficient to cover rising claims costs, compressing the combined ratio and reducing underwriting income.
Source: 10-K Risk Factors (inferred from regulated insurance business model)
| Metric | Current | Previous | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue $B | 87.67 $B | 75.37 $B | +16.32% |
Net Income $B | 11.31 $B | 8.48 $B | +33.35% |
EPS (Basic) $ | 19.29 $ | 14.45 $ | +33.49% |
EPS (Diluted) $ | 19.23 $ | 14.40 $ | +33.54% |
Answers draw on this SEC filing and the data on this page
Progressive added 0.5 million policies and grew premiums in Q2 FY2026, but underwriting margin compressed to 12.7% as claim severity and a 16% jump in advertising costs offset investment-driven net income gains.
Progressive Corporation delivered solid Q1 2026 results with revenue rising 8.7% YoY to $22.2B and net income growing 9.8% YoY to $2.8B, though operating cash flow declined 15.1% to $4.4B amid significant financing outflows.
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