Computed from published fixed rules, not a model's judgement — though one input, the count of high-severity risks, comes from the AI analysis below.
Not investment advice and not a price target: it scores the quarter's fundamentals, not the stock. Full methodology →
AI Takeaway
Valero Energy (VLO) reported a challenging FY2025 with net income declining 15.2% to $2.35B and EPS of $7.57, as lower refining margins compressed profitability despite a meaningful reduction in cost of revenue.
Cost of Revenue
$117.25B
-6.25% YoY
EPS (Diluted)
$7.57
-11.77% YoY
Operating Income
$3.18B
-15.29% YoY
Source: SEC XBRL
Valero Energy (VLO) reported FY2025 revenue of $117.25B, down 6.3% year over year. Operating cash flow was $5.83B, down 12.8% year over year.
Last 4 quarters: 4 beats
| Quarter | Actual EPS (USD) | Consensus (USD) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 12.54 | 10.22 | Beat +22.7% |
| Mar 2026 | 4.22 | 3.19 | Beat +32.2% |
| Dec 2025This filing | 3.82 | 3.30 | Beat +15.8% |
| Sep 2025 | 3.66 | 3.08 | Beat +18.8% |
Reported EPS of $3.82 versus the $3.30 analyst consensus — a +15.8% beat for Dec 2025.
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing
Cost of revenue fell 6.3% YoY to $117.26B, reflecting lower crude oil and feedstock prices, but operating income still declined 15.3% to $3.18B, indicating that refining margins compressed more than input costs fell.
Source: 10-K Income Statement
Net income dropped 15.2% to $2.35B and diluted EPS fell 11.8% to $7.57 (from $8.58), driven by weaker crack spreads and reduced throughput economics typical of a softer refining cycle.
Source: 10-K Income Statement
Despite lower earnings, Valero returned approximately $2.60B to shareholders through share buybacks in FY2025, though this was down 9.6% from $2.88B in the prior year, reflecting disciplined capital allocation amid margin pressure.
Source: 10-K Cash Flow Statement
The current ratio improved to 1.65 as current liabilities fell 8.9% to $14.11B, and cash & equivalents remained stable at $4.69B, suggesting adequate near-term liquidity despite earnings headwinds.
Source: 10-K Balance Sheet
Operating cash flow declined 12.8% to $5.83B, while investing outflows moderated to $1.85B, resulting in estimated free cash flow of approximately $3.98B — still sufficient to fund buybacks and dividends.
Source: 10-K Cash Flow Statement
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing · 2 high, 3 medium, 0 low
Valero's earnings are highly sensitive to crack spreads — the difference between crude oil input costs and refined product prices. FY2025 results demonstrate this vulnerability, with operating income falling 15.3% even as cost of revenue declined 6.3%, indicating that product price realizations fell faster than input costs. Sustained weak margins could further pressure profitability.
Source: 10-K Income Statement
Long-term debt rose 2.2% to $8.26B in FY2025 even as net income and operating cash flow declined. This divergence increases financial leverage at a time when earnings power is weakening, potentially constraining future capital allocation flexibility.
Source: 10-K Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement
Stockholders' equity fell 3.2% to $23.73B, partly reflecting ongoing share buybacks ($2.60B in FY2025) funded partly by debt and operating cash flow. Continued aggressive buybacks in a low-margin environment could erode the equity base further.
Source: 10-K Balance Sheet
Investing cash outflows of $1.85B in FY2025 represent ongoing capital commitments for refinery maintenance and potential expansion. If refining margins remain depressed, sustaining this level of capex while returning capital to shareholders could strain free cash flow.
Source: 10-K Cash Flow Statement
With total assets declining 3.6% to $57.99B and operating income down 15.3%, any reduction in refinery utilization rates — due to unplanned outages, regulatory changes, or demand shifts — could disproportionately impact fixed-cost absorption and profitability.
Source: 10-K Income Statement & Balance Sheet
| Metric | Current | Previous | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Cost of Revenue $B | 117.26 $B | 125.08 $B | -6.25% |
Operating Income $B | 3.18 $B | 3.76 $B | -15.29% |
Net Income $B | 2.35 $B | 2.77 $B | -15.23% |
EPS (Basic) $ | 7.57 $ | 8.58 $ | -11.77% |
EPS (Diluted) $ | 7.57 $ | 8.58 $ | -11.77% |
Answers draw on this SEC filing and the data on this page
Valero Energy Corporation reported strong Q2 FY2026 results with net income rising 421% year-over-year to $3.72B, driven by robust global fuel demand, tight refining capacity, and expanding product margins across all operating segments.
Valero Energy (VLO) delivered a strong Q1 FY2026 turnaround, swinging to $1.26B net income from a $595M loss a year ago, driven by a 292% surge in operating income to $1.73B as refining margins recovered significantly.
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