Computed from published fixed rules, not a model's judgement — though one input, the count of high-severity risks, comes from the AI analysis below.
Not investment advice and not a price target: it scores the quarter's fundamentals, not the stock. Full methodology →
AI Takeaway
Vistra Corp. (VST) delivered a dramatic Q1 2026 turnaround, with revenue surging 43.4% YoY to $5.64B and net income swinging to $1.03B from a prior-year loss of $268M, driven by strong power generation performance and improved operating leverage.
Revenue
$5.64B
+43.40% YoY
EPS (Diluted)
$2.87
+408.60% YoY
Operating Income
$1.5B
+1349.17% YoY
Source: SEC XBRL
Vistra (VST) reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $5.64B, up 43.4% year over year. Operating margin was 26.6%, against -3.1% a year earlier. Operating cash flow was $1.2B, up 100.2% year over year. VST's fiscal Q1 FY2026 corresponds to calendar Q1 2026.
Last 4 quarters: 1 beat
| Quarter | Actual EPS (USD) | Consensus (USD) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026This filing | 2.87 | 1.35 | Beat +112.2% |
| Dec 2025 | 0.54 | 2.37 | Miss -77.2% |
| Sep 2025 | 1.75 | 2.12 | Miss -17.6% |
| Jun 2025 | 0.71 | 1.23 | Miss -42.5% |
Reported EPS of $2.87 versus the $1.35 analyst consensus — a +112.2% beat for Mar 2026.
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing
Revenue grew 43.4% YoY from $3.93B to $5.64B in Q1 2026, reflecting significantly higher realized power prices and increased generation volumes, consistent with elevated electricity demand trends across Vistra's key markets.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Income Statement
Operating income improved by $1.62B YoY, from a loss of $120M to a gain of $1.50B, pushing the operating margin to 26.6% from -3.1%. This dramatic swing reflects both revenue growth and improved cost management relative to the prior year's hedging and commodity cost pressures.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Income Statement & Key Ratios
Operating cash flow reached $1.20B in Q1 2026, up 100.2% from $599M in Q1 2025, demonstrating strong cash conversion from improved earnings and working capital dynamics, which supports ongoing capital allocation priorities.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Cash Flow Statement
Long-term debt rose 17.5% YoY to $19.16B, suggesting continued capital investment in generation assets or acquisitions. Investing cash outflows moderated to -$638M from -$1.06B, indicating a potential slowdown in large capital expenditures compared to the prior year.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement
Vistra repurchased $372M in shares during Q1 2026, up 10.4% from $337M in Q1 2025, reflecting management's continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders despite elevated debt levels.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Cash Flow Statement
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing · 3 high, 2 medium, 0 low
Vistra carries $19.16B in long-term debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.38x, representing a significant financial risk. Rising interest rates or refinancing needs could materially increase interest expense and pressure free cash flow. The current ratio of 0.90 also indicates current liabilities exceed current assets, raising near-term liquidity concerns.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Balance Sheet & Key Ratios
With a current ratio of 0.896, Vistra's current liabilities of $10.06B exceed current assets of $9.02B, meaning the company may need to rely on credit facilities or operating cash flow to meet short-term obligations. Any disruption to cash generation could strain liquidity.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Balance Sheet
As a power generator, Vistra's revenues are highly sensitive to wholesale electricity prices, natural gas costs, and other commodity inputs. The prior year's operating loss of $120M illustrates how quickly margins can deteriorate in unfavorable commodity environments. Hedging strategies may not fully offset adverse price movements.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Income Statement (YoY comparison)
Power companies like Vistra typically carry large derivative portfolios for hedging, which can introduce significant non-cash mark-to-market gains or losses that distort reported earnings. The wide swing from -$268M net income to +$1.03B in a single year suggests meaningful exposure to such volatility.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Income Statement
Vistra's business requires substantial ongoing capital investment in generation assets, as evidenced by significant investing cash outflows. D&A of $484M in Q1 2026 alone highlights the asset-heavy nature of the business, and failure to reinvest adequately could impair long-term generation capacity and competitiveness.
Source: 10-Q Financial Data, Cash Flow Statement
| Metric | Current | Previous | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue $B | 5.64 $B | 3.93 $B | +43.40% |
Operating Income $B | 1.50 $B | -0.12 $B | +1349.17% |
Net Income $B | 1.03 $B | -0.27 $B | +483.96% |
EPS (Basic) $ | 2.90 $ | -0.93 $ | +411.83% |
EPS (Diluted) $ | 2.87 $ | -0.93 $ | +408.60% |
SG&A Expense $M | 427.00 $M | 391.00 $M | +9.21% |
Answers draw on this SEC filing and the data on this page
Vistra delivered strong operational growth with Adjusted EBITDA up 31% in Q2 FY2026, but GAAP net income fell due to non-cash hedging losses.
VST reported FY2025 revenue of $17.7B (+3.0% YoY), but net income fell sharply to $944M (-64.5%) and operating income dropped 53.3% to $1.9B, reflecting significant cost pressures and margin compression despite modest top-line growth.
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