Computed from published fixed rules, not a model's judgement — though one input, the count of high-severity risks, comes from the AI analysis below.
Not investment advice and not a price target: it scores the quarter's fundamentals, not the stock. Full methodology →
AI Takeaway
CF Industries delivered a strong FY2025 with revenue rising 19.3% to $7.08B and operating income surging 31.7% to $2.30B, driven by improved nitrogen fertilizer pricing and disciplined cost management.
Revenue
$7.08B
+19.34% YoY
EPS (Diluted)
$8.97
+33.09% YoY
Gross Margin
38.5%
+3.8 pts YoY
Operating Income
$2.3B
+31.73% YoY
Source: SEC XBRL
CF Industries Holdings (CF) reported FY2025 revenue of $7.08B, up 19.3% year over year. Operating margin was 32.5%, up 3.1 points from 29.4% a year earlier. Operating cash flow was $2.75B, up 21.2% year over year.
Last 4 quarters: 3 beats
| Quarter | Actual EPS (USD) | Consensus (USD) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 4.51 | 5.67 | Miss -20.5% |
| Mar 2026 | 2.89 | 2.67 | Beat +8.2% |
| Dec 2025This filing | 3.20 | 2.56 | Beat +24.9% |
| Sep 2025 | 2.22 | 2.20 | Beat +0.7% |
Reported EPS of $3.20 versus the $2.56 analyst consensus — a +24.9% beat for Dec 2025.
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing
CF Industries grew total revenue by 19.3% year-over-year to $7.08B in FY2025, up from $5.94B in the prior year, reflecting stronger nitrogen fertilizer market conditions and improved realized prices across product lines.
Source: 10-K Income Statement (XBRL Financial Data)
Gross margin improved from 34.6% to 38.5% in FY2025, as revenue growth of 19.3% outpaced cost of revenue growth of 12.4%, indicating better operating leverage and favorable input cost dynamics relative to selling prices.
Source: 10-K Income Statement & Key Ratios (XBRL Financial Data)
Operating cash flow increased 21.2% to $2.75B in FY2025, demonstrating the company's robust cash generation capability and supporting continued capital returns to shareholders through $1.37B in share buybacks.
Source: 10-K Cash Flow Statement (XBRL Financial Data)
Investing cash outflows nearly doubled to -$933M in FY2025 from -$469M in the prior year (a 98.9% increase), suggesting meaningful capital expenditure or acquisition activity to support future growth or capacity expansion.
Source: 10-K Cash Flow Statement (XBRL Financial Data)
CF Industries repurchased $1.37B of shares in FY2025, slightly below the $1.51B in the prior year, while long-term debt rose modestly by 8.2% to $3.22B, reflecting a balanced capital allocation approach between growth investment and shareholder returns.
Source: 10-K Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (XBRL Financial Data)
Compiled by AI from this SEC filing · 2 high, 2 medium, 1 low
CF Industries' revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to nitrogen fertilizer prices, which are cyclical and influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, natural gas costs, and geopolitical factors. The 19.3% revenue increase in FY2025 could reverse if fertilizer prices decline materially in subsequent periods. This creates significant earnings variability from year to year.
Source: 10-K Risk Factors (inferred from financial data)
Natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, and cost of revenue of $4.36B represents a significant portion of total revenue. Any sustained increase in natural gas prices could compress margins, as the company may not be able to fully pass through input cost increases to customers. The current gross margin of 38.5% could deteriorate under adverse energy price scenarios.
Source: 10-K Income Statement (XBRL Financial Data)
Long-term debt increased 8.2% to $3.22B in FY2025, while stockholders' equity declined 2.9% to $4.84B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.66x. Elevated debt levels increase financial risk, particularly if operating cash flows were to decline due to lower fertilizer prices or higher input costs. Rising interest rates could also increase the cost of refinancing existing obligations.
Source: 10-K Balance Sheet (XBRL Financial Data)
Investing cash outflows nearly doubled to $933M in FY2025, suggesting a significant ramp-up in capital projects. Large capital programs carry risks of cost overruns, construction delays, or failure to achieve projected returns, which could strain free cash flow and capital allocation flexibility. If projects underperform, the company's return on assets (currently supported by $14.09B in total assets) could be negatively impacted.
Source: 10-K Cash Flow Statement (XBRL Financial Data)
Stockholders' equity fell 2.9% to $4.84B in FY2025 despite strong net income, primarily due to the $1.37B in share repurchases and any dividends paid. Continued aggressive buybacks funded partly by debt could weaken the balance sheet over time, reducing financial flexibility during periods of market stress or operational disruption.
Source: 10-K Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement (XBRL Financial Data)
| Metric | Current | Previous | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue $B | 7.08 $B | 5.94 $B | +19.34% |
Cost of Revenue $B | 4.36 $B | 3.88 $B | +12.37% |
Gross Profit $B | 2.72 $B | 2.06 $B | +32.49% |
Operating Income $B | 2.30 $B | 1.75 $B | +31.73% |
EPS (Basic) $ | 8.98 $ | 6.75 $ | +33.04% |
EPS (Diluted) $ | 8.97 $ | 6.74 $ | +33.09% |
SG&A Expense $M | 364.00 $M | 320.00 $M | +13.75% |
Answers draw on this SEC filing and the data on this page
CF Industries' Q2 FY2026 net income nearly doubled on soaring nitrogen prices fueled by global supply disruptions, though sales volumes fell due to the Yazoo City plant idling.
CF Industries delivered a strong Q1 FY2026 with revenue surging 19.4% YoY to $1.99B and operating income nearly doubling (+89.7%) to $863M, driven by significantly improved margins and a robust balance sheet.
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