Computed from published fixed rules, not a model's judgement — though one input, the count of high-severity risks, comes from the AI analysis below.
Not investment advice and not a price target: it scores the quarter's fundamentals, not the stock. Full methodology →
AI Takeaway
CF Industries delivered exceptional earnings growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, as a sharp run-up in nitrogen fertilizer prices—driven by severe Middle East supply disruptions—propelled margins to record levels. The average selling price surged 39% to $523 per ton, more than offsetting a decline in sales volumes that stemmed from the idled Yazoo City plant and weaker agricultural purchasing. While the price surge boosted profits, the sustainability of these elevated prices depends on geopolitical developments, and volumes remain constrained until the Yazoo City rebuild is completed in the first half of 2027.
Revenue
$2.22B
+17.57% YoY
EPS (Diluted)
$4.73
+99.58% YoY
Gross Margin
51.5%
+11.6 pts YoY
Operating Income
$1.12B
+72.99% YoY
Source: SEC XBRL
CF Industries Holdings (CF) reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $2.22B, up 17.6% year over year. Operating margin was 50.5%, up 16.2 points from 34.3% a year earlier. CF's fiscal Q2 FY2026 corresponds to calendar Q2 2026.
Last 4 quarters: 3 beats
| Quarter | Actual EPS (USD) | Consensus (USD) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026This filing | 4.73 | 5.67 | Miss -16.6% |
| Mar 2026 | 2.89 | 2.67 | Beat +8.2% |
| Dec 2025 | 3.20 | 2.56 | Beat +24.9% |
| Sep 2025 | 2.22 | 2.20 | Beat +0.7% |
Reported EPS of $4.73 versus the $5.67 analyst consensus — a -16.6% miss for Jun 2026.
5 reported segments · SEC XBRL
Segment revenue totals $2.22B, which is the $2.22B of consolidated revenue on the income statement. The profit column adds up to the consolidated figure as well.
Profit above is reported as gross profit, the measure CF itself discloses in this filing. Each company chooses its own measure here, so these margins are not comparable with another company's.
Compiled by AI from 10-Q Item 2 of this filing
Average selling prices surged 39% YoY to $523 per ton in Q2 2026, driven by a tight global supply-demand balance exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, which halted exports through the Strait of Hormuz. This added approximately $588 million to net sales.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
The idled Yazoo City plant reduced AN sales volumes significantly. A $23 million asset impairment was recorded in Q2 2026, and management approved a rebuild plan with production expected to resume in the first half of 2027.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
The company recognized $50 million in business interruption insurance recoveries related to the Yazoo City incident, partially offsetting the operational impact and contributing to net earnings.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
The joint venture received state and federal permits in July 2026, enabling construction to commence in August 2026. Low-carbon ammonia production is expected to begin in 2029, with total project cost estimated at $3.7 billion.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
Natural gas cost per MMBtu was essentially flat YoY in Q2 at $3.37 but rose 14% for the six-month period to $4.01 due to a January price spike, reducing gross margin by $73 million year-to-date.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
Compiled by AI from 10-Q Item 2 of this filing · 2 high, 3 medium, 0 low
Conflict in the Middle East, including attacks and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupted nitrogen fertilizer exports from the region, causing price volatility. A ceasefire, settlement, or resumption of shipments could rapidly unwind the tight supply-demand balance and reduce selling prices.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
U.S. tariff policies remain in flux, with multiple investigations and potential new tariffs under Section 301 that could affect imported equipment costs, export competitiveness, and cross-border trade with Canada. Retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports could further complicate the trade environment.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
The FTC launched an industry-wide investigation into fertilizer pricing following political pressure to lower costs for farmers. Potential regulatory actions could impact pricing practices, impose constraints, or affect the company’s operations.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
The Yazoo City incident in November 2025 resulted in extended production curtailments and additional impairment charges. Any future operational failures, accidents, or plant downtime could further disrupt production, increase costs, and lead to financial losses.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
Natural gas is the principal feedstock and fuel for ammonia production, and its price can be volatile due to weather, supply disruptions, and LNG demand. While current North American prices are low, spikes—like the one in January 2026—can quickly compress margins.
Source: 10-Q Item 2 MD&A
| Metric | Current | Previous | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue $B | 2.22 $B | 1.89 $B | +17.57% |
Cost of Revenue $B | 1.08 $B | 1.14 $B | -5.11% |
Gross Profit $B | 1.15 $B | 0.76 $B | +51.66% |
Operating Income $B | 1.12 $B | 0.65 $B | +72.99% |
EPS (Basic) $ | 4.74 $ | 2.37 $ | +100.00% |
EPS (Diluted) $ | 4.73 $ | 2.37 $ | +99.58% |
SG&A Expense $M | 89.00 $M | 101.00 $M | -11.88% |
Answers draw on this SEC filing and the data on this page
Expected release date, analyst estimates & what to watch
CF Industries delivered a strong Q1 FY2026 with revenue surging 19.4% YoY to $1.99B and operating income nearly doubling (+89.7%) to $863M, driven by significantly improved margins and a robust balance sheet.
CF Industries delivered a strong FY2025 with revenue rising 19.3% to $7.08B and operating income surging 31.7% to $2.30B, driven by improved nitrogen fertilizer pricing and disciplined cost management.
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